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Forecast demand has Rio smiling again

Wednesday, Jun 02, 2010
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Smh reported that given the argy bargy over the resource rent tax, it should be no surprise that matters unrelated to the tax did not get much of an airing at Rio Tinto's annual meeting.


That's a shame because resource bulls would have drawn a lot of comfort from what Rio's boss, Mr Tom Albanese CEO of Rio had to say about the strength of the long term demand outlook, notwithstanding the occasional bumps along the way from things like the global financial crisis.


The Jersey boy reckons that despite the world crisis and now the euro debt crisis, the longer term drivers relating to the developing world's industrialization, urbanization and increased productivity remain in place.


Mr Albanese said that over the next 15 years we expect consumption trends to lead to a doubling in demand for iron ore, aluminium and copper. We also expect substantial increased demand for energy. These trends will require a significant response from producers.


He said that let me put this in perspective. By 2030 the additional supply required will be equivalent to replicating the iron ore output of the Pilbara region of Australia every 5 years, adding another aluminium production complex the size of Canada's Saguenay every nine months and developing another copper mine the size of Escondida in Chile each year. Future energy requirements are such that an entire Hunter Valley coal supply chain needs to be created each year plus a uranium mine the size of Ranger every four years. It is staggering stuff.


Now in the heat of the resource rent tax debate, Rio and the other big miners would have you believe that Australia is going to miss the boat. On the edges perhaps but the secular change in demand that the industrialization and urbanization of China and India is delivering means that we ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to the industry's growth potential, tax or not.


(Sourced from www.smh.com.au)

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