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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Activity slows to a crawl

Tuesday, Mar 20, 2007
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LME-registered stocks of aluminium registered a net decline of 1,200t last week, following on from the previous week's net fall of 8,500t.

However, the most notable feature of the week was the sharp slowdown in activity and it was at times a question of whether inflow or outflow would dry up first.

The dissipation of the extreme tightness across the market's nearby structure has reduced the incentive to deliver metal and LME inflow has dropped accordingly. It totalled 6,100t last week, down from 8,775t the previous week and 31,550t in the week prior to that.

Outflow, however, was equally meagre last week, largely due to low cancelled tonnage in the system. That didn't change last week with only 4,400t of fresh cancellations—the lowest weekly total since the middle of January, As such, the overall ratio of cancelled tonnage continues to limp along just above the year's low of 2.4%.

Right now, there's little to suggest anything more than the headline figure tracking gently sideways over the next few days.

NYMEX-warranted stocks fell by 706 tons to 19,221 tons (17,437 metric) thanks to small draws at Owensboro and Toledo. The headline figure is now showing a year-to-date decline of 4,354 tons (3,950 metric).

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