Stocks of aluminium registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose by 6,450t to 99,377t in the week to Thursday.
It was the third consecutive rise, bringing the cumulative total to 73,857t over that period. However, it was well off the pace of the previous week's massive 56,522t surge and that now looks like a direct function of the Lunar New Year holidays that preceded it.
As the chart shows, SHFE stocks are re-building from an extremely low base by historical standards but we remain wary we could be starting to see the start of a bigger structural build, largely reflecting the punitive 15% export duty that appears to have strangled off the country's exports of primary metal.
LME stocks fell for the fifth consecutive reporting day thanks to continued reduced inflow—no doubt a function of the loosening nearby market structure—and steady draws. The latter continue to overly reflect movement at Rotterdam, where a big tranche of sow is currently on the move.
However, cancelled tonnage both at the Dutch port and the system as a whole continues to fall and that's going to feed through into slowing "out" side activity sooner rather than later. The ratio of cancelled tonnage in the system is now 2.7% and closing in on the year's low of 2.4% seen late Jan.
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