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MI Comment: Aluminium treads higher as confidence trickles back

Friday, Mar 09, 2007
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Aluminium again accounted for half the LME metals' total turnover on Wednesday, as the whole complex lifted together with global equities, precious and energy markets. The light metal found support in the form of consumer buying in the morning, providing a floor around 2680, and in the afternoon prices rose strongly, though a spike to 2750 on the pm rings was unsustainable. With nerves still frayed after last week's shakeout locals were happy to take profits, while the 100- and 30-day moving averages overhead offered technical resistance. Values came off somewhat in the latter stages of the day, ending the aftermarket c. 2725.

Nearby spreads were little-changed, as was the position in today's WC warrant banding update from the LME, while forward movement was mostly routine with rates $1.00-$1.50 steadier to 2010. The only notable movement was a $5.00/mth hike in H1 2011, from 10.00b/mth to 15.00b/mth, while the second half was cut from 10.00b/mth to 7.50b/mth.

Trading resumed at 2725 in early Asian dealing on Thursday and at time of writing prices were on the up again, led mainly by copper. Confidence appeared to be flowing back with stronger commodities prices driving influential mining and energy equities higher, which in return lent support back to metals and other instruments. So far, aluminium had lifted to a high of 2758 on 2,000 lots traded, though again the presence of moving averages thereabouts was drawing selling interest, locals reported. Cliff Green Consultancy as at last night kept 'local resistance' in the 2800/2820 band, with a clear break higher required to set up another run at last week's highs c. 2905.

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