Aluminium looked like running out of puff on Thursday, with better-than-expected US ISM figures providing the only positive note during an otherwise laboured performance. Rising exchange stocks, apparent lending from the 'dominant' long and, of course, continuing fears of further fallout in equities bourses pressured the market. As we signed off yesterday prices had slipped from 2840 to 2805 from where they then bounced to 2857 in the morning sessions, but the market gave up the ghost in the afternoon with stock markets and precious metals falling out of bed. The light metal sank to 2790, bounced again briefly and finished c. 2783 during the aftermarket, with some locals noting some switching out of aluminium in favour of copper.
The aggressive borrowing we noted in our previous report was reversed yesterday with Mar-May shrinking to 1.00b from 10.00b. Forward rates were unchanged overall with 2009 tightening by up to $2.00/mth and 2010 easing by a similar margin. As at cob Wednesday the dominant long in the LME's WC report stayed at 80-90%.
The big news on Friday morning was the weekly stocks update from the SHFE, reporting a net rise of 56,522t, which exceeded the market's expectations somewhat despite the usual build around the Lunar new year. The report chipped (only) $40 off 3-month LME values, falling from 2794 to 2753 at time of writing, though they were currently finding support in the form of the 30- and nearby 100-day moving average. Volumes were high at more than 3,000 lots so far. In yesterday's move Cliff Green Consultancy's longs had been liquidated, they wrote, with the market's recent upward excursion out of its 8-month trading range proving unsustainable. They now stood aside, looking for a break of 'key' support c. 2710 to trigger further falls, while resistance would start again at 2850, they added. Last at 2775.
豫公网安备41010502003434号