As we signed off Tuesday the metals complex was taking its cue from falling stock markets, with heavy falls in equities triggered by a plunging Shanghai and Shenzhen index in China. Of greatest significance to the metals markets were murmurs of an interest rate rise in the country, which would probably hit demand for commodities generally. However, aluminium's slide was gradual compared with others, falling from a fleeting high at 2899 to 2840 as we signed off, which had as much to do with another large warranting on the LME as events elsewhere. More remarkable was its recovery from there, clambering back up to 2888 in the pm sessions, as short-covering came in on the back of positive US consumer confidence and home sales figures on the heels of weak durable goods data earlier. Locals talked of fresh fund allocations and month-end window-dressing in explaining the move(s), though during the aftermarket values rattled off again in light trading, bottoming at 2855 at the late close.
The nearby backwardation eased somewhat throughout C-3m, while forwards and the LME's WC warrant banding report were mostly static.
The market pulled back further on Wednesday morning, falling towards the 10-day moving average with a current low of 2820 after an earlier high of 2853. More month-end jockeying was fully expected before the day's end, though there was no consensus among dealers in which direction it was likely to go. In the immediate term they were watching fast money being pulled from fast markets in favour of safer financial paper and the positive mood from the end of last week had been dealt a blow. As at last night, however, Cliff Green Consultancy was unwavering. Technically aluminium's medium term prospects had "improved significantly" after emerging on the upside from its 7-8 month range, they wrote, with prices expected to trend towards the 3050 region. Last at 2833 with turnover at a lowly 1,100 lots.
豫公网安备41010502003434号