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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Shanghai lower again

Saturday, Feb 10, 2007
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Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by 3,773t to 25,520t in the week to Thursday. It was the second consecutive weekly decline and although the headline figure is showing a (Western) year-to-date increase of 6,938t, that's largely a function of a sharp rise in the very first days of January and by any historical benchmark, it remains at very low levels.

The LME headline figure, meanwhile, continues to rise, Thursday bringing the 10th consecutive daily net increase.

Again the tonnage of fresh arrivals was less than spectacular and the only clue that we're seeing a response to the still-strong backwardation is the unusual spread of locations active on the "in" side.

Draws remain humdrum and although the ratio of cancelled tonnage in the system perked up above the 4.0% level yesterday, that's still low and with the exception of the concentration of cancelled tonnage at Gwangyang doesn't promise much sustained acceleration in "out" side activity in the next few days.

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