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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Fresh 11-month low

Saturday, Dec 09, 2006
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The LME headline figure fell to its lowest level since the middle of January yesterday thanks to a combination of no arrivals and accelerated draw. It is now showing a year-to-date net rise of 31,200t, which attests to the scale of the stocks build back in the first days of 2006.

"Out" side activity was Thursday boosted by draws at Singapore, where Monday's 24,750t of cancellations appear to be already on the move. A total 5,800t have been drawn down in the last two reporting days, leaving 24,175t still in the departure lounge here.

Fresh cancellations didn't keep pace with the rate of draw yesterday, meaning the cancelled ratio slipped back to 6.7%. It is clear that Singapore will continue to dictate the overall pace of draws in the next few days until that tranche of metal has left the system.

Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by a net 2,447t to 18,826t in the week to Thursday. That has largely offset the previous week's 3,980t rise and leaves the headline figure back near the recent extreme lows.

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