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MI aluminium stocks analysis: LME draws deplete cancelled tonnage

Saturday, Nov 18, 2006
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The draw rate in the LME warehouse system accelerated sharply yesterday, largely reflecting the return of "out" side activity at Gwangyang in South Korea, which has a history of this sort of big one-off movement.

However, cancelled tonnage here has now fallen to 1,200t, meaning no room for any more draws of this size any time soon.

That's indicative of the system as a whole because with only 150t of fresh cancellations yesterday, the strong departure rate has served only to deplete an already empty-looking cancelled pipeline.

The ratio of cancelled tonnage has sunk to just under 4%--the lowest it's been since February—while in terms of outright tonnage the amount of cancelled warrants in the system is also the lowest since February.

Either way, it seems highly likely we're going to see a sharp deceleration in draw rates in the days ahead.

Meanwhile, stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 3,348t to 26,353t in the week to Thursday. It was the first rise in almost a month and the headline figure is still showing a year-to-date decline of 20,129t.

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