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MI Comment: Aluminium weakens as shorts build

Saturday, Nov 18, 2006
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A mixed bag with a negative undertone is how LME action could best be described on Tuesday. The morning sessions were calm, with aluminium finding support initially c. 2700 from Asian buyers and consumers elsewhere, though the afternoon saw further liquidation from larger fund players while CTAs continued to build shorts. The slide was arrested at the 'old' support level of 2680, with traders pretending that Monday's fall to 2615 hadn't happened.

Whether the December-date panic that the market was going through a few short weeks ago will yet have a sting in the tail remains to be seen, though yesterday rates eased again across C-3m. Dec20-27 ended at 2.00b (3.00b), Dec27-Jan17 at 6.50c (4.00c) and Jan-3m at 1.50b (3.00b). Beyond 3-months rates in 2007 slipped by up to $3.50/mth, 2008 eased by $1.00/mth and the rest was unchanged.

Wednesday morning had again been a tentative and quiet session as we write, with volumes limping to just 1,000 lots at the end of the first am ring. From 2700 prices had eased to 2665 with the bullish feeling of last week visibly dissipating. Having, like many, been turned over in the whipsaw action of recent days, Cliff Green Consultancy in a report was now looking to establish fresh shorts, expecting support c. 2620 to come under renewed examination in the coming sessions. Last at 2680.

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