MI aluminium stocks analysis: Small weekly rise

LME-registered stocks of primary aluminium registered a small net 700t rise last week after the previous week's steep 8,950t decline.

That was down to a resumption of heavy warranting activity at Asian locations—4,300t Friday at Pusan, 3,325t at fellow South Korean location Gwangyang and 3,125t at Singapore.

Draw activity was fairly muted until Friday where metal started moving at Gwangyang after 8,025t of cancellations on Monday and Tuesday. There's still 5,500t in the departure lounge here, suggesting a couple more days of heightened "out" side activity.

Overall it was a better week for fresh cancellations. At 16,425t they were the highest weekly total for three months, which suggests that draw rates generally will recover as well as those at Gwangyang.
With the headline figure hovering just above the cycle low of 678,900t registered last Monday, next direction will be a function of how much more metal moves on to warrant in the next few days. There's been a lot of scuttlebutt about Chinese players moving material to bonded warehouse with a view to trying to beat the latest the rise in export duties, although, if true, it may still be a week or so before we see it hit the LME system.

Meanwhile, NYMEX registered stocks lurched a little lower thanks to 1,888 tons of draws mid-week from Owensboro. That's left the headline figure at 16,394 tons, off the year's low of 13,238 tons seen at the start of October, but still down by 51,967 tons on the year to date.