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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Cancellations accelerate

Wednesday, Nov 01, 2006
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Monday brought the biggest single-day rate of cancellation in the LME system since the last day in July and that’s boosted the ratio of cancelled tonnage from a limp-looking 5% to 6.1% in one fell stroke.
Most of the cancellation activity came at Gwangyang, lifting cancelled tonnage at the South Korean location from a humble 325t to 7,725t, which suggests that after a period of relative inactivity it is going to rejoin the list of active locations.

Both Swedish locations have featured daily draws for several weeks now but cancelled tonnage at Gothenburg was starting to look very low at just 175t on Friday. Monday’s activity has at least partly refilled the departure lounge. Helsingborg still holds 11,500t of cancelled tonnage, making it the largest concentration in the system.

The cancellations may take a little while to feed through into actual draws, which continue to run at an ever more sluggish pace thanks to poor cancellation rates in the last three weeks.
That said, a continued conspicuous lack of arrivals means the headline figure dropped to a new cycle low Monday.

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