MI aluminium stocks analysis: LME creeps down to fresh cycle low

The LME headline figure ended last week at a fresh cycle low thanks to a net weekly fall of 8,950t after two weeks of modest (sub 1,000t) rises.

In truth daily draw rates could best be described as moderate but it was the relative lack of fresh inflow that helped achieve that cycle low—just 775t of arrivals, split between Singapore’s Friday receipt of 750t and a 25t warranting at Rotterdam on Wednesday.

Lack of more arrivals will be critical if the headline figure is going to keep falling from here since there is nothing on the cancellation side suggesting any acceleration of draw rates in the next few days.

Fresh cancellations totalled a highly modest 4,525t last week with the ratio of cancelled tonnage continuing to bump along at low levels—5.0% as of the end of the week.