The LME headline figure is within touching distance of the Oct 11 cycle of 680,875t thanks to a combination of modest daily draws and, more critically, a lack of fresh inflow.
The system has received just a single lot this week—25t at Rotterdam on Wednesday. However, it’s worth mentioning that the last two times the headline figure got down towards the 680,000t level the mini downtrend was reversed under the weight of sustained heavy arrivals…whether this time will be any different is a moot point.
Some encouragement can be found in yesterday’s cancellation rate with 3,525t moving into this category. That’s the largest single-day cancellation rate for several weeks, although on the back of extremely subdued activity earlier this week, the overall ratio of cancelled tonnage is still at a lowly 5.2%.
Meanwhile, stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell by 2,587t to 35,534t in the week to Thursday, reversing the previous week’s 1,047t rise but not making much impact on the much bigger rise of 20,720t seen two weeks ago.
That said, the headline figure is showing a year-to-date decline of 10,948t and has fallen a long way from the mid-May high of 184,602t.
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