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MI aluminium stocks analysis: SHFE stocks rebuild a little more

Saturday, Oct 21, 2006
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Stocks registered with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose by a net 1,047t to 38,121t in the week to Thursday, marking a further modest rebuild from the extreme low of 16,354t seen in the week prior to the national holidays at the start of the month.

That said, however, the SHFE headline figure is still showing a year-to-date decline of 8,361t and is still a long way off its mid-May peak of 184,602t.

Activity in the LME system Thursday was subdued with the recent flow of metal into Asian locations coming to an end and draw rates remaining subdued thanks to recent low cancellation rates.

The latter continue to improve, yesterday’s 3,475t bringing the week-to-date total to 8,600t, which is hardly spectacular but an improvement on last week’s negative movement resulting from big “reverse cancellations” at Singapore.

Similarly, the overall ratio of cancelled tonnage edged up a little further to 5.6%, which is still on the low side by recent standards. Note further cancellation activity yesterday at Trieste, this time in the form of ingot. It looks as if some of the 26,250t registered here is becoming active after being locked-up since its arrival back in Feb/Mar.

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