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MI aluminium stocks analysis: Cancelled ratio sinks further

Wednesday, Oct 18, 2006
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The flow of metal on to warrant at Singapore extended to its third consecutive day Monday, ending the mini downtrend in the headline figure that had been in place since late August.

The pace of arrivals yesterday was by no means spectacular but it coincided with a sharp slowdown in draw rates and these can be expected to remain highly modest in the days to come as cancelled tonnage is now back at low levels.

Once again there were “reverse cancellations” at Singapore, which compounded the decline in fresh cancellations. Cancelled tonnage on the island now amounts to just 1,200t, while the ratio of that in the system as a whole has just slipped below the 5% for the first time since February.

The movement back into open tonnage seen several times in recent days may be a function of defensive action against the sharp contraction in nearby spreads. It has certainly left the cancelled pipeline looking depleted and that should result in a further slowing of “out” side activity in the days to come.

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