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MI Comment: Aluminium sticks in light trading

Saturday, Oct 14, 2006
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In thin volume aluminium had picked up to 2625 from an opening at 2600 before we signed off on Thursday, though the market had already run out of steam and slid back to 2590 as we went to press. Along with copper, the market’s performance was a subdued one and instead it was lead, tin and nickel that shone yesterday, flying higher on fresh CTA interest and on deepening supply fears, in the case of the latter. Aluminium bottomed at 2564 towards the end of the morning sessions, rebounding to 2613 in the afternoon before slipping again at the close.

Nearby spreads were still being borrowed up to Nov15, with the contango narrowing marginally, accentuated by a weekend rolling past Cash. In the latter part of C-3m the Nov-Dec contango relaxed somewhat to 9.50c (8.00c), while Dec-3m also eased to 7.50b (11.00b). Forwards rates slipped by $1.00-$1.50/mth in 2007 and the only ‘move’ of the previous day was corrected, with Nov-Dec’08 back at 14.50b (18.00b).

Early sentiment on the LME on Friday was derived from sizeable stock increases both in Shanghai and in London, with prices slipping from 2590 to 2560 initially, though values had fully recovered at time of writing. Volume was still no better than 714 lots at the end of the premarket, while the only real activity for now remained in lead, tin and nickel.

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