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MI aluminium stocks analysis: LME at 9-month low

Friday, Oct 13, 2006
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The headline LME figure hit a nine-month low yesterday thanks to a continued absence of arrivals (none so far this week) and a surprisingly robust draw rate.

We say “surprisingly robust” because with few fresh cancellations and the large “reverse cancellations” at Singapore on Tuesday, cancelled tonnage in outright terms has fallen to its lowest level since April. The ratio of cancelled tonnage at 6.5% is at its lowest level since the middle of June and neither yardstick suggests any room for sustained draws at the sort of rate seen yesterday.

Gwangyang boosted Wednesday’s draw rate and this South Korean location has a history of bulky movement. But it now holds only 5,050t of cancelled tonnage, suggesting one or maybe two more days of accelerated movement.

Meanwhile, NYMEX warranted stocks are being rebuilt after falling to just 14,722 tons last week. A second consecutive day of high warranting activity at Owensboro—2,668 tons—has caused the headline figure to move back up to 20,058 tons.

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