Rusal sees aluminum rally ahead

According to the world's biggest aluminum producer, the sometimes-neglected industrial metal is due for at least a 12% bounce over the next few months. Rusal CEO Oleg Deripaska currently targets $2,400 a ton for aluminum by the end of the year, which would represent a significant upswing from the $2,140 or so the metal currently brings.

"Asia" is the primary culprit in Deripaska's bullish outlook, and that means China. India primarily produces its own aluminum and Japan's appetite for the metal remains muted at best. While U.S. investors cannot trade Hong Kong-listed Rusal directly, they can get a piece of China's homegrown aluminum market via Chalco ACH:

As far as Rusal is concerned, an upturn in aluminum prices could also mean a merger into Russian nickel giant Norilsk NILSY. Rusal currently owns 25% of NILSY and has agitated to combine the two operations for years, only to be stymied by boardroom politics. However, once aluminum becomes a hotter commodity, Deripaska hopes the added leverage will give him the heft he needs to push past opposition.

Likewise, tin prices have moved to levels last seen in early 2008, before the credit crunch. Zinc, lead and nickel are also look bullish。