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EARNINGS POLL-RUSAL 2009 underlying net loss seen narrowing

Friday, Apr 09, 2010
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* FY results expected April 12


* Net loss seen at $949 million before non-cash items


* Compares with $5.98 bln loss a year earlier


* Including non-cash gain, RUSAL could post $574 mln profit


MOSCOW, April 8 (Reuters) - The world's top aluminium producer, Russia's UC RUSAL, is expected to report a 2009 net loss of $949 million, excluding non-cash items, against a $5.98 billion loss in 2008, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.


The loss resulted from weak aluminium prices and low demand for the metal caused by the global economic crisis and expenses linked to debt servicing.


Analysts have calculated this figure without taking into account non-cash gains, which according to Troika Dialog analysts may add more than $1.4 billion to RUSAL's bottom line.


Taking into account a gain from RUSAL's debt restructuring, revaluation of the 25 percent stake it owns in the metals giant Norilsk Nickel and Norilsk's own profit, RUSAL could report a net income of $574 million, the poll showed.


RUSAL expects to post a net profit no lower than $434 million after minorities. But it said this figure included $1.067 billion gain from its debt restructuring.


VTB analysts believe that 2009 will be the last year in which RUSAL will post a loss and expect the company to become profitable again in 2010.


Below is a summary of analysts' forecasts for 2009 results (figures in millions of dollars unless stated; figures in brackets signify a loss):


Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Net profit


Margin excl. non-cash incl. non-cash


gain gain Average 8,066 413 5.1 (949) 574 Median 8,089 479 5.9 (884) 457 Minimum 7,866 112 1.4 (480) 451 Maximum 8,438 588 7.0 (1,677) 815 2008 15,685 3,526 22.5 (5,984)


Seven major Russian and Western banks participated in the survey, most on the condition of anonymity as they have not yet published their official reports on RUSAL. (Reporting by Polina Devitt; writing by Aleksandras Budrys; editing by Simon Jessop)

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