MOSCOW--Someone either jumped the gun in Moscow yesterday, or pointed the gun, in publishing an announcement that the Russian anti-trust agency has given its approval to the proposed merger of Russia's two aluminium producers, Russian Aluminium (Rusal) and SUAL, along with alumina refining assets of the Swiss-based Glencore.
Since the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) told Mineweb on December 27 that its investigation of the merger proposal was a complex affair, and may be delayed for months, the announcement this week of the apparent FAS approval, quoting FAS chief Igor Artemyev, suggests that he and his subordinates had worked doggedly through the Christmas and New Year holiday period; and had then accelerated their announcement of approval for the benefit of the principal beneficiary of the deal, Oleg Deripaska, owner of Rusal.
Two Russian news agencies, Prime-Tass and RIA-Novosti, led with similar announcements of the approval, with apparently confirming quotes from the head of the FAS, Igor Artemyev. Associated Press followed, and English versions of the story followed in the general financial and industry media. All were in parallel with, or followed, the posting of an announcement on the Rusal website, in which Artemyev is quoted as saying: "We have made a decision in principle to approve of the deal and within two weeks we plan to complete the paperwork related to our final conclusion."
However, FAS told Mineweb this morning there has been a misunderstanding. Rusal had made a presentation of its plans to the FAS on January 16. There has been no decision on the part of the FAS to approve anything, because the Russian government has approved nothing, yet. According to the FAS spokesman, Elena Nagaichuk: There was no approval -- just a presentation made. We are still working, and my comments on timing are still in force. Before the holiday break, Nagaichuk had told Mineweb: "Igor Artemyev is constantly and repeatedly saying that the review of this deal can be delayed. The main reason is that the deal is very complicated and according to current legislation we can delay the review by two months, and we may use it. I want to remind that documents were submitted in November.
Asked whether Artemyev had said what was been reported, Nagaichuk told Mineweb he had, but that he was speaking for himself. She cautioned that the FAS may recommend approving the merger, but the Russian government and Kremlin will decide the issue. Artemyev and FAS have been over-ruled on major deals in the past, and opposition from government ministers, as well as the presidential administration, can trigger lengthy negotiations over conditions for deal approval. Depending on the political sensitivities, these can take months.
At this point, "we have no strong opposition," Artemyev's spokesman told Mineweb, "but the final decision will be made only after consulting with the government which has not been done yet."
She hinted that an estimate of two weeks for the government and President Vladimir Putin to review the deal, and issue a decision is premature.
Who came down the chimney for Artemyev, and what was in his sack?
According to Rusal, Artemyev made the following comment on Rusal's presentation: "I think that the merger of the three companies will signify the emergence of Russia's first transnational corporation, a leader in the world's aluminium industry, which fulfils the globalization and consolidation trends in the world. This move will strengthen Russia's role as a fully-fledged participant in international economic integration and encourage growth of its influence on the global market."
What is missing from this apparent endorsement is the sign that Deripaska has been waiting for that Putin will allow him to register the merged company in a UK jurisdiction, and manage the company's trade and tax optimization schemes in the same fashion that Rusal has been doing since its creation.
Presidential candida
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