Copper may fall on concern about a potential demand slowdown after China, the world’s biggest consumer of the metal, raised interest rates, a survey showed.
Thirteen of 18 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 72 percent, said the metal will drop next week. Four predicted higher prices and one forecast little change. Copper for delivery in three months was down 1 percent for this week at $9,945 a metric ton at 5 p.m. yesterday on the London Metal Exchange.
China increased borrowing costs on Feb. 8 for the third time in four months to curb inflation that a report next week may show sped up to the fastest pace in 30 months, according to economists. On the same day, Citigroup Inc. said last month’s copper imports into China probably were “flat or significantly weaker than in December.”
“We see that base-metal prices including copper will continue to drift down following China’s interest-rate hike, curbing near-term appetite for demand,” said Charles Cooper, an analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd. in London. “We also believe prices to have limited upward support until China announces details on its new five-year plan in March.”
The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The survey data shown are as of Feb. 4.
The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 58 of the past 123 weeks, or 47 percent of the time.
（Source From ：Bloomberg）
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