Bloomberg Jan 7----Copper may fall on speculation manufacturers and investors will hold off on purchases because of high prices, resulting in more supplies, a survey showed.
Nine of 15 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 60 percent, said the metal will drop next week. Six predicted higher prices. Copper for delivery in three months was down 1.6 percent this week at $9,450 a metric ton as of 4:23 p.m. yesterday on the London Metal Exchange and 3.1 percent below the record high of $9,754 a ton achieved on Jan. 4.
Warrants for copper in the ETF Securities Ltd. exchange- traded product have stayed at about 1,445 tons since Dec. 17. Inventories of copper in warehouses monitored by the LME are heading for the fourth consecutive weekly advance, according to figures from the exchange by yesterday.
“Copper prices should fall next week as consumers hold back from high price levels and as base metal ETF products struggle to attract new investment,” John Meyer, an analyst at Fairfax IS in London, said by e-mail.
ETF Securities hasn’t started the sales effort for its products and will need at least four or six months to determine their demand, said Scott Thompson, co-head of European sales at ETF Securities. The company will list an aluminum-backed product in the first quarter on the London Stock Exchange, he said.
The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The chart goes to Dec. 31.
The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 58 of the past 119 weeks, or 49 percent of the time.
This week’s survey results: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 9 Hold: 0
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