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METALS-Copper eases late; weak dlr, retail sales underpin

Wednesday, Sep 15, 2010
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NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Copper prices eased back into negative territory late Tuesday, but the losses were limited after better-than-expected retail sales in the United States offered another sign of strength in the world's largest economy.


Copper for December delivery on the COMEX metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange shed 1.05 cents to close at $3.4685 per lb, after dealing between $3.4280 and $3.4975.


On the London Metal Exchange (LME), benchmark copper ended up $30 at $7,660 a tonne, but surrendered that gain to trade at $7,625 in after hours, down $5 from Monday's close.


The metal, used in power and construction, remains well within reach of its four-month high of $7,750 hit earlier this month.


"I believe the big figure for the week was the retail sales figure today," said Justin Lennon, analyst with Mitsui Bussan Commodities Inc. "The data reinforced these initial signs of strength in the U.S."


Sales at U.S. retailers posted their largest gain in five months in August, further assuaging fears of a double-dip recession.


A late sell-off in the U.S. dollar contributed to the red metal's brief push higher.


"That turnaround is related to the dollar," said analyst Stephen Briggs of BNP Paribas.


A weak U.S. currency makes metals priced in dollars less expensive for holders of other currencies.


"One reason the dollar has weakened is there is quite a lot of talk in the market about more quantitative easing later this year," added Briggs.


"That has a dual positive effect on base metals, firstly because of its effect on the dollar, and more directly because quantitative easing is deemed positive for risky assets, because … there is more money chasing homes."


TIGHT SUPPLIES


Analysts said robust economic figures from China and supply tightness in the copper market were likely to cushion any fall in prices.


"We've had some impressive numbers from China and I think tightness in the copper supply side is going to put a natural floor to any potential correction," said Carl Firman, analyst at Virtual Metals, adding copper could test $8,000 a tonne in the fourth quarter.


China is the world's top copper consumer. Its copper imports for the year -- 2.954 million tonnes -- are running just a fraction slower than last year, when imports broke all previous records.


Demand prospects were bolstered on Monday by news that China's industrial production rose 13.9 percent year-on-year, rebounding after slowing to 13.4 percent in July.


Falling copper inventories, currently at 390,525, also supported prices. Stocks have fallen from above 550,000 tonnes in February.


Supply-side constraints and a brighter demand outlook also helped to drive other metals higher.


Nickel closed at a new four-month peak of $23,350 per tonne and tin closed at a two-year top at $22,650 per tonne.


"The metals that have supply constraints have been quite strong, particularly tin and copper," Mitsui's Lennon said.


Tin has been supported by supply constraints out of Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter.


Aluminum ended up $29 at $2,159 a tonne, while lead was untraded at the close but last bid at $2,242. LME zinc finished at $2,175 from $2,148 a tonne. Metal Prices at 1843 GMT COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 Ytd Pct


move COMEX Cu ** 347.10 -0.80 -0.23 334.65 3.72 LME Alum 2145.00 15.00 +0.70 2230.00 -3.81 LME Cu 7620.00 -10.00 -0.13 7375.00 3.32 LME Lead 2230.00 -20.00 -0.89 2432.00 -8.31 LME Nickel 23150.00 300.00 +1.31 18525.00 24.97 LME Tin 22455.00 155.00 +0.70 16950.00 32.48 LME Zinc 2147.00 -1.00 -0.05 2560.00 -16.13 SHFE Alu * 15530.00 -125.00 -0.80 17160.00 -9.50 SHFE Cu * 59080.00 -460.00 -0.77 59900.00 -1.37 SHFE Zin * 17500.00 -290.00 -1.63 21195.00 -17.43 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Additional reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Pratima Desai in London; editing by Alison Birrane and Jim Marshall)

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