Substantial Decline In Aluminium Surplus In January 2010: WBMS

The calculated market surplus for primary aluminium for January 2010 was 156 kt, which compares with a surplus of 309 kt registered in the first month of 2009 and with a surplus of 580 kt in the whole of 2009.

Demand for primary aluminium in January 2010 was 3.1 million tonnes, 516 kt more then the equivalent total 2009. Production in January rose by 364 kt following on from a 2.9 million decline over the whole of 2009.

Total reported stocks rose slightly during January and ended the month at just over 6.54 million tons, equivalent to about 67 days' demand.

Total stocks held in the four exchanges in London, Shanghai, USA and Tokyo rose slightly during January and ended the month at 4946 kt, which was almost, double the equivalent total recorded one year earlier.

Global producer stocks at the end of January were 1263 kt, which was 60 kt above last year's close. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes especially those held in China.

Overall, global production rose in January by 12.6 per cent compared with January 2009 total. Chinese output was estimated at 1260 kt and this currently accounts for 38 per cent of the world production total.

China remained a net importer of unwrought aluminium with imports exceeding exports by a mere 6 kt. However, for the first time in many months, China was actually a net exporter of unwrought Aluminium during December 2009.

During the whole of the 2009 calendar year, Chinese net imports totalled 1430 kt.

Production in the EU27 fell by 10 kt and NAFTA output fell by 56 kt. EU27 demand was 17 per cent above the January 2009 period.

Global demand appeared to rise substantially in January compared with the very depressed levels recorded on year ago.

In January, primary aluminium production was 3256.2 kt and consumption was 3099.8 kt.

Meanwhile, in domestic markets, MCX Aluminium prices are trading at Rs 103 per kg, marginally down in the intra day moves.

Supports for the contract are at Rs 101. Resistances for the contract are at Rs 103.50 per kg.