Japanese metal trading company, Mitsubishi Corporation Unimetals, currently forecasted primary aluminium price at London Metal Exchange would fluctuate in a range at USD 1,800 to USD 2,700 per tonne in CY2012. The company estimated LME aluminium price would maintain weak tone in the first six months when the investors are likely to depart from risky assets under European financial crisis. In the latter six months, LME aluminium price is expected to rebound along major countries' quantitative easing policies and emerging countries' economic growth.
Mitsubishi Corporation Unimetals forecasts LME primary aluminium price at USD 1,800 to USD 2,400 for January to March and April to June, USD 1,900 to USD 2,600 for July to September and USD 1,900 to USD 2,700 for October to December.
Smelting cost in cash was estimated at around USD 2,100 per tonne as the world average in CY2011. Smelting cost seemed lower in Middle East and Russia than the global average thanks to cheaper energy costs while higher in China and Western countries at above US$ 2,200 due to expensive electricity costs.
Annual primary aluminium consumption is forecasted to increase by 6.5% to 47.599 million tonnes in 2012 from 2011 while the supply to increase by 7.5% to 48.907 million tonnes, according to the market analysis by UK think tank, CRU. Both consumption and supply is forecasted to expand by 2 million tones year on year in China.
As for LME primary aluminium inventory, which has currently approached 5 million tonnes, an official of Mitsubishi Corporation Unimetals gave a view the inventory would keep above 4 million tonnes for a while. The main factor is that financial agencies and traders would continue financial dealing actively in 2012.
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