Research and Markets: India Metals Report Q1 2012: independent forecasts and competitive intelligence

 

 

Indian metals production will hit headwinds in 2012 as market growth moderates in the face of a slowdown in the automotive industry while producers struggle to secure raw material and energy supplies for their operations, according to BMI's latest India Metals Report.

 

 

Business Monitor International's India Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's metals industry.

 

 

Indian crude steel output grew 5.6% to 72mn tonnes (mnt) in 2011 with declining activity in the automotive market coupled with disruptions to raw material supplies undermining growth. Meanwhile, BMI estimated consumption growth falling to 6.6% (68.7mnt) in 2011. Finished steel consumption is projected at just under 100mnt in 2016. Factors depressing demand growth include the effects of higher interest rates on the automotive and construction sectors, the country's top steel using industries.

 

 

Aluminum consumption was estimated at 1.6mnt in 2010 and is set to more than double over the next five years due to growth in domestic manufacturing. BMI has reduced its growth forecast for 2011 from 10.0% to 3.2% with output at 1.66mnt. A decline in activity in the automotive market coupled with raw materials supply problems and continued delays in capacity expansion will limit growth to 2.7% in 2012.

 

 

Vedanta's expansion project, which is raising its smelting capacity from 1.6mn tonnes per annum (tpa) to 2.5mn tpa, along with a recovery in the aluminum market and hope that constraints to growth will be alleviated, should support 35% growth in primary aluminum output to 2.3mnt in 2013 with production set to exceed 3mnt by 2016. BMI believe that consumption growth declined to 8.6% in 2011, a downward revision from the 10.0% BMI previously forecast, due to economic slowdown, particularly its effects on the automotive industry. At the same time, BMI have raised their forecast for net exports from 132,000 tonnes to 261,000 tonnes in 2011. Lower levels of domestic consumption than previously forecast should ensure that India maintains a trade surplus in aluminum over the medium term and does not descend into deficit.

 

 

Key Topics Covered:

 

 

SWOT Analysis

 

 

Global Market Overview - Steel Forecast

 

 

Regional Overview

 

 

Industry Forecast Scenario

 

 

Steel

 

 

Aluminum

 

 

Lead

 

 

Zinc

 

 

Macroeconomic Forecasts

 

 

Competitive Landscape

 

 

Aluminum

 

 

Regulatory Landscape

 

 

Company Profiles

 

 

National Aluminum Company (NALCO)

 

 

Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL)

 

 

Vedanta Resources

 

 

Global Assumptions

 

 

Developed States

 

 

Emerging Markets

 

 

Country Snapshot: India Demographic Data