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TECHNICALS-Zinc positive short term, aluminium neutral

Thursday, Oct 22, 2009
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* LME zinc in short-term uptrend; ShFE zinc also seen higher * Aluminium neutral to soft; resistance at $2,080 SINGAPORE, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Zinc prices will keep rising in the short term while the outlook for aluminium is neutral to bearish, according to technical analysis from Superfund. The systematic technical trading fund, which has some $1.65 billion under management and can invest in around 120 futures markets, said the short-term downward trendline in London Metal Exchange zinc that connected back to 2007 was broken in March 2009. It sees this and the positive MACD -- moving average convergence divergence -- as bullish signs, confirmed by the 50-day moving average crossing over the 150-day in April. "Zinc is definitely hold with a positive uptrend in the short term with support at $1,600-$1,700," Aaron Smith, the head of Superfund in Asia, said. "However, it is still in a downtrend from a medium- to long-term trading perspective," he added The contract has risen 8.2 percent so far in October, on course for its strongest performance since July, and is up 76 percent year-to-date. The chart for Shanghai zinc was similar to its London cousin, but Smith said although the chart showed the market was in a technical uptrend, the MACD had to hit a new high for that uptrend to continue and remain resilient. In the case of aluminium, Smith said the market was testing the 50-day moving average, while the relative strength indicator was not compelling and resistance was in place around the recent high of $2,080. "Our outlook for aluminium is neutral to slightly bearish." (Reporting by Nick Trevethan; Editing by Michael Urquhart)

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