Aluminum Prices Likely To Remain Depressed

Aluminum prices are likely to remain capped as production will outstrip supply, even if demand grows as expected, said an aluminum research firm on Tuesday.

Primary production out of China, India and the Middle East lead both the demand and supply growth, said Jorge Vazquez, managing director of Harbor Aluminum Intelligence. He spoke at Harbor’s conference in Chicago.

Global output in 2013 is estimated at 50.6 million metric tons, a 5.5% increase from 2012, he said. That figure is estimated to increase by 10.9% to 56.2 million tons in 2014. Demand is forecast to grown 6.1% in 2013, to 50.5 million tons and by 10.2% to 55.7 million tons. Despite the anticipated rise in use, Harbor’s forecasts show even if demand grows as expected, there is “no significant (supply) deficit (in) the cards,” Vazquez said.

Based on that outlook, Harbor’s base LME cash price forecast for 2013 is $2,016 a ton and $2,419 for 2014. In 2012, the average price as $2,020.

Six straight years of surpluses and record inventories in aluminum means there is an “intense bearishness toward aluminum,” he said. For 2013, global aluminum inventories as of April are estimated at 14.2 million tons.

From 2013 to 2017, working-age populations are forecast to grow in India, and in other parts of Asia outside of China, the Middle East and the Americas, Vazquez said. Growth in those regions will more than offset drops in working-age populations in Japan, Russia, Western Europe and China, he added.

The demographic trends bode well for aluminum in the longer-term as the metal has one of the highest rates of demand growth among the industrial metals.

However, until the market can work through overproduction, overcapacity and overhang, the demographic fundamentals will at best keep a floor under prices and supply keeps a lid on values.