China has developed from a large aluminium manufacturing country to a primary powerful country. Meanwhile, China is also a large aluminium scarp import country.
Chinese scarp import volume in 2011 was 2.69 million tones, export volume was 1200 tonnes. It is predicted that this situation will continue at least until 2030. Beside import, aluminium scarp volume from disassembled imported machines was 600,000 tonnes. So the total imported aluminium scarp volume was 3.3 million tones. If the casting yield is 83%, the secondary aluminium is 2.7 million tones.
It is not the fastigium of recyclable aluminium scarp. The first peak year is predicted to be 2015. Optimistic forecast showed that the average growth rate in the next 10 years will reach 12%. Output in 2020 will exceed 15.7 million tones. But aluminium scarp volume in the country is increasing every year, so imported aluminium volume will decline a lot. Chinese national economy development is at a steady phase with an average DGP growth rate at about 7.5%. Thus secondary aluminium growth rate may less than 10%. If it is 10%, secondary aluminium output will be 13.4 million tonnes.
Secondary aluminium industry is a sunrise industry in China, and secondary aluminium demand exceeds supply now. Till the second half of 2013, demand will continue to increase. 31% growth rate until 2020 was predicted.
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