China's alumina imports could rise over the next four years

　　China's alumina imports could potentially increase over the next four years, if constraints in bauxite availability were to mount just as the country prepares to bring online 10 million mt/year of new aluminium smelting capacity in the Xinjiang autonomous region, Deutsche Bank said in a report Friday.

　　China is strategically short of bauxite and must import either bauxite or alumina to feed its expanding aluminium smelting industry. Deutsche pointed to a divergence in trend between the two feedstocks over the past few years, with China becoming increasingly reliant on imported bauxite vis-a-vis alumina, due to new domestic refining capacity. But the trend could potentially reverse in coming years, the bank said.

　　"We would expect that as Chinese imports of bauxite decelerate, imports of alumina could recover, potentially resulting in a re-rating of alumina vs. aluminium in the process," it said.

　　China is heavily reliant on bauxite imports from Indonesia, importing 36 million mt from there in 2011, according to industry consultant Brook Hunt.