China July copper imports up 9.5 pct, August may fall

 　　* Unwrought copper, semis imports at 306,626 tonnes

 

　　* Rise due to contracted arrivals

 

　　* August imports may decline - analysts

 

　　* Aluminium imports, exports up in July, alumina dives (Recasting with forecast and aluminium)

 

　　By Polly Yam

 

　　HONG KONG, Aug 10 (Reuters) - China's copper imports rose 9.5 percent to a six-month high in July as material purchased during a period of lower prices in May and June arrived at ports, but may decline in August.

 

　　Imports were still down 22 percent in the first seven months, suggesting that monetary tightening has slowed demand in the world's top copper consumer, adding to concerns that shaky western economies will knock consumption.

 

　　"Most of these imports in July would have been bought during late May, early June when the price was well off the February-April levels," David Thurtell, analyst at Citigroup, said.

 

　　London Metal Exchange copper prices averaged just over $9,000 a tonne in May and June, coming off a record peak above $10,000 in February, but recovered to average $9,670 in July.

 

　　China's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products increased to 306,626 tonnes in July after posting a 9.9 percent rise in June, but were still down 10.6 percent from July 2010, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Wednesday.

 

　　REFINED COPPER

 

　　The July imports may have included 190,000-200,000 tonnes of refined copper, the most popular type in the international and Chinese markets, Zhuo Guiqiu, analyst at Minmetals Futures, said.

 

　　The estimate suggests refined copper imports will rise more than 6 percent in July from June's 178,638 tonnes. Data for refined copper imports is expected to be released on Aug. 21.

 

　　Traders said Chinese investors and merchants had booked more spot refined copper in May and June when arbitrage ratios between London Metal Exchange and Shanghai prices improved from previous months. The bulk of the contracted refined metal is set to arrive in June to August.

 

　　Domestic demand for copper had dropped in July from June as some fabricators cut production in the summer.

 

　　Analysts expect imports in August may fall from July, unless the arbitrage window opens to attract spot bookings later in the month.

 

　　"The current picture is that imports in August should fall from last month. For the demand side, this month is in the middle of the seasonal lows," Minmetals' Zhuo said.

 

　　Citigroup's Thurtell said the price had flicked up sharply in late June and then through July, creating an expectation that August's imports wouldn't be quite as strong.

 

　　"But the Shanghai-LME arbitrage has remained reasonably good, and so I would expect imports would hold at reasonably firm levels."

 

　　Increased arrivals of refined copper and the seasonal weak demand raised bonded copper stocks in Shanghai by more than 15 percent to about 350,000 tonnes in July.

 

　　But bonded stocks may have fallen since Friday because a near 8 percent fall in Shanghai copper prices SCFc3 attracted fabricators to buy spot copper in the domestic market and investors and merchants to buy bonded copper for reselling to the domestic market, traders said.

 

　　Premiums for bonded copper in Shanghai rose to $120 per tonne over cash LME copper prices on Tuesday from about $75 in late July.

 

　　Imports of copper scrap, the raw material for fabricators' semi-finished products production and copper producers' refined production, increased 2.4 percent to 430,000 tonnes in July, extending a 5 percent rise in June.

 

　　ALUMINIUM, ALUMINA

 

　　Imports of primary aluminium, alloys and semi-finished aluminium products rebounded from June's decline and rose 9.2 percent to 70,413 tonnes in July, up 4.4 percent from a year earlier.

 

　　But imports of alumina, the raw material for primary aluminium production for which China is the top producer, fell 14.3 percent to hit a record low of 60,000 tonnes in July due to high international prices and sufficient domestic supply.

 

　　China previously was one of the world's top alumina importers, but it has ramped up production and can cover more than 90 percent of the demand now.

 

　　The world's top aluminium consumer exported 82,023 tonnes of primary aluminium and alloys in July, a surge of 38.6 percent from June 2011 and up 19.2 percent from July 2010 due to high alloy exports.

 

　　Traders said steady LME aluminium prices had prompted Chinese alloys producers to sell more to the international market in July.

 

　　"Exports of alloys rose a lot in July. Outflows for primary aluminium did not rise much," an aluminium alloy exporter in the southern Guangdong province, said.

 

　　Aluminium alloy does not carry an export tax as long as it is made from imported materials. But primary metal is subject to a 15 percent export tax.

 

　　China may impose export taxes on aluminium alloy additives such as silicon in the near future, which has been prompting producers to export more since July, traders said.