Chinese aluminum production hit an all-time high last month and could limit further price gains if feared power-related supply interruptions end up not materializing after all, Commerzbank says.
Chinese data showed an 8.7% year-on-year rise in aluminium production to a record of 1.54 million metric tons. “Smelters have clearly raised production sharply in anticipation of bottlenecks in power supply during the summer months,” Commerzbank says.
“Should the power shortage not be as serious as feared, aluminum production is unlikely to fall significantly but is more likely to stay at its current very high level, according to the Chinese data provider SMM.
The high supply surplus on the global aluminum market would therefore remain and the significant oversupply should prevent further substantial price rises.”