Global demand for primary aluminum may almost double in the next decade led by growth in China, leading to a supply shortage of about 8 million metric tons, the Japan Aluminium Association said today.
Consumption is forecast to grow to 74 million tons in 2020 from 38 million tons this year, the association said in a report. Global capacity to produce the metal is expected to increase 47 percent to 66 million tons, it said.
Aluminum has slumped 12 percent this year, after a 45 percent rally in 2009, as Middle Eastern smelters started production and China turned into a net exporter, adding to a global surplus. The market is expected to turn into deficit after 2015, as high electricity costs may make it difficult for producers to catch up with expanding demand, said Takuki Murayama, the association’s secretary general.
“A supply shortage may exceed 10 million tons” in 2020 if producers close some of their inefficient smelting facilities, he told reporters in Tokyo today.
Demand in China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal used for cars and houses, is forecast at 44 million tons in 2020, almost tripling from 16 million tons this year, the report said. The growth will be driven by expanding car output in the nation, the largest auto market, Murayama said.
Japan, Asia’s largest importer, should step up efforts to secure supply through investment in new projects, as availability is reduced in the long term, Murayama said. Japan holds equity stakes in overseas aluminum producers for about 1 million tons a year, he added.
Japan’s aluminum demand is expected to grow 26 percent to 2.4 million tons in 2020 from this year, the report said.
Members of the Japan Aluminium Association include Furukawa-Sky Aluminum Corp., Kobe Steel Ltd. and Nippon Light Metal Co.