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MARKET TALK: Aluminum Price Faces Downward Pressure - Analyst

Tuesday, Mar 27, 2007
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LME 3-month aluminum at $2,730/metric ton, up $5 from late kerb close but showing underlying weakness, facing downward pressures, says analyst Harbor Intelligence; cites a number of factors weighing on metal, including booming supply, with annual global output growth at 12.7% - fastest rate since 1991, plenty of new capacity set to come onstream; LME inventories continue to climb, Monday rising 1,675 tons to 812,150 tons, up 23% since mid December, "confirming the view that we are experiencing an incipient market surplus," Harbor says in weekly analysis. Market also has moved into contango, while hedge fund activity isn't dominant any longer, it says, suggesting if price breaks below 12-month moving average around $2,690, this could open way for test of $2,550.

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