Global aluminum prices should start to fall from the 2Q of '07 as a result of a growing market surplus, lower alumina and energy prices and speculative liquidation, says Harbor Intelligence. "The triggers of the fall in prices will be consistent inventory accumulation, liquidation of the dominant hedge fund position and a return to a contango," Harbor notes. A market surplus of around one million metric tons is seen for each of the next three years, with an average of $2,250/ton in '07 and $1,850/ton in '08. LME aluminum trades last at $2,710/ton, up from $2,705/ton overnight.
豫公网安备41010502003434号