That also applies to the bauxite mines that supply aluminum's basic raw material and the refineries that produce the white powder for the smelter cells.
Also, aluminum projects must constantly face the risk of violent metal market price swings. ``You need long-term contracts also because it costs millions of dollars to shut down a smelter in bad times.''
Aluminum ingot now trades at around $1.20 US a pound, down sharply from last May's peak. Many believe prices may decline slightly in 2007 if the U.S. economy weakens. In the early '90s prices were around 48 cents for several years after Russia flooded world markets with surplus metal.
Evans said Alcan's 10-year program will provide a stable economic base for the Saguenay for the foreseeable future, parallel with the expansion of the Kitimat plant in British Columbia.
``The technology is critical,'' he added. ``Our research centre in France, where the AP50 process was initially developed, is getting more investment and staff to speed the next breakthrough that will yield another 20 per cent energy saving. It will also be tested in Quebec and it can be fitted retroactively to existing smelters.''
Alcan closed down the old polluting Sodeberg lines at Arvida-Jonquiere two years ago. It is committed to shutting down its older smelters at Shawinigan and Beauharnois by 2015 and also its Vaudreuil alumina plant in the Saguenay. Attrition and transfers should cushion the impact. Modernization of Vaudreuil would be ``enormously expensive,'' said Evans.
Alcan targets 55 per cent of its primary aluminum production in the first quartile of the industry's cost-curve and most of its new projects will be in the first.
It is completing an alumina expansion in Australia, expanding Kitimat to 400,000 tonnes and ISAL in Iceland to 460,000 tonnes, with interests in new smelters in Oman and South Africa and a joint-venture in China. It now operates or has interests in 22 smelters in 11 countries.
``Aluminum will stay on a solid growth path because it can be recycled, it is versatile and cost-competitive,'' said Evans. ``Carbon composites may gain market share in aerospace, but that's only two per cent of total demand.''
He said a hostile bid for Alcan from one of the world's major resource groups, as has been rumoured, is ``highly unlikely'' at this stage.
That also applies to the bauxite mines that supply aluminum's basic raw material and the refineries that produce the white powder for the smelter cells.
Also, aluminum projects must constantly face the risk of violent metal market price swings. ``You need long-term contracts also because it costs millions of dollars to shut down a smelter in bad times.''
Aluminum ingot now trades at around $1.20 US a pound, down sharply from last May's peak. Many believe prices may decline slightly in 2007 if the U.S. economy weakens. In the early '90s prices were around 48 cents for several years after Russia flooded world markets with surplus metal.
Evans said Alcan's 10-year program will provide a stable economic base for the Saguenay for the foreseeable future, parallel with the expansion of the Kitimat plant in British Columbia.
``The technology is critical,'' he added. ``Our research centre in France, where the AP50 process was initially developed, is getting more investment and staff to speed the next breakthrough that will yield another 20 per cent energy saving. It will also be tested in Quebec and it can be fitted retroactively to existing smelters.''
Alcan closed down the old polluting Sodeberg lines at Arvida-Jonquiere two years ago. It is committed to shutting down its older smelters at Shawinigan and Beauharnois by 2015 and also its Vaudreuil alumina plant in the Saguenay. Attrition and transfers should cushion the impact. Modernization of Vaudreuil would be ``enormously expensive,'' said Evans.
Alcan targets 55 per cent of its primary aluminum production in the first quartile of the industry's cost-curve and most
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