Rio Tinto Forecasts Strong 2011 Production .

—Rio Tinto Wednesday forecast a rise this year in production of iron ore and coking coal as its operations in Australia recover from tropical cyclones and monsoon rains that battered the country's important mining regions earlier this year.

Aluminum production volumes are also expected to improve, but output of copper and uranium are both predicted to fall for the year, the Anglo-Australian company said.

"Our Australian coal, iron ore, uranium and alumina operations were affected by the extreme weather in the first quarter, but most are recovering and are benefiting from continued strong prices," Chief Executive Tom Albanese said.

Demand for steel, along with the minerals essential in its manufacture--namely iron ore and coking coal--is being driven by rapid industrialization in Asia, particularly China and India. Exports of iron ore from Australia are expected to total 425 million metric tons this year, up 5.5% compared with last year, to reinforce the country's position as the top exporter, according to figures from the Australian government's Bureau of Agriculture & Resource Economics and Sciences. Meanwhile, Australia's Bowen Basin in Queensland state accounts for roughly 40% of global coking coal output.

Rio said its output of iron ore globally fell 3% compared with a year earlier to 42 million metric tons in the first quarter, with its operations in the western Pilbara region disrupted by three cyclones and widespread flooding. The company, which is working to expand its capacity in the Pilbara to 283 million tons a year, said output from Australia and Canada is expected to rise to 191 million tons in 2011 from 184.6 million last year.

It said Australian hard coking coal output fell 12% in the first quarter, while thermal coal output was consistent with the same three months of last year. Coking coal production is expected to rise to 9.3 million tons this year, but thermal coal will likely fall to 18.2 million tons, from almost 9 million and 18.4 million tons, respectively, in 2010, the company said.

Heavy rainfall and flooding late last year and earlier this year prompted a number of mines in the coal-rich Bowen Basin to declare force majeure. Rio invoked the clause, which releases it from supply obligations due to circumstances beyond its control, at four of its mines, and said it remains in effect at Hail Creek.

Several analysts said that while the quarterly production figures were weak, particularly compared with strong results in the previous quarter, they had largely been anticipated after the bad weather in Australia.

"We would not be surprised if the market saw through these numbers," Numis Securities in London said in a research report. "Our intuitive call is that the production hits are roughly in line with expectation."

Rio said its alumina production was down 4% in the first quarter, primarily due to the rain in Queensland, while aluminum output was broadly flat. It forecast alumina production of 9.4 million tons and aluminum at 3.9 million tons, against 9.1 million and 3.8 million in 2010.

Quarterly copper output fell 14%, largely due to a decline in copper grades at the Escondida mine in Chile that is majority-owned by BHP Billiton and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia. It said mined copper is expected to fall about 21% this year to about 539,000 tons.